Future of Capital Flow Analysis: High Payback; Low Research Costs.

The Future of Capital Flow Analysis: High Payback; Low Research Costs High Payback, Low Research Costs : continued

Capital Flows in Context

The Future of Capital Flow Analysis

Capital Flow Analysis fits into the big picture as a technique for reducing systemic risk by forecasting market trends over the medium term, based on Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts.

Capital Flow Analysis reduces systemic risk by forecasting trends over the medium term.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve publishes a useful array of national flow of funds data, in more detail and more often than any other country.

Because this information is free over the Internet, the cost of Capital Flow Analysis in the U.S. is very small compared to, say, Fundamental Analysis.

Because systemic risk makes up such a large portion of investment risk, the return for successful Capital Flow Analysis can be substantial.

Therefore, because the pay back can be so high with relatively low research costs, compared to alternative ways of reducing systemic risk, a skillful capital flow analyst should command compensation for services at least comparable to the best practitioners of security analysis and portfolio management.

However, in 2005, Capital Flow Analysis is still a career for the future and, therefore, for the young.

On this site, we not only provide knowledge about this technique, but also a way, through a forum and weblog, to assist analysts in being recognized.


Before proceeding, check your progress:


Which analystical technique is more expensive in the aggregate :
Choice 1 Fundamental analysis.
Choice 3 Modern Portfolio Theory.
Choice 4 Capital Flow Analysis.
Choice 2 Technical Analysis.
Capital Flow Analysis makes forecasts of market variations in the area of :
Choice 2 Non-systemic risk.
Choice 1 Systemic risk.
Choice 3 Credit risk.
Choice 4 Management risk.
Competent capital flow analysts can provide high value services at relatively modest cost because:
Choice 2 Flow of funds data is free.
Choice 3 A single analyst can forecast a market.
Choice 1 Formulas are processed on computers.
Choice 4 Analysts specialize in specific stocks.

Learning Module: Steps in Capital Flow Analysis  learning module : continued >

Suggested Reading in Capital Flow Analysis
"Qualitative Inquiry and Research Design: Choosing Among Five Traditions", Paperback, John W. Creswell

Clear, concrete examples of five "traditions" or types of qualitative research

"That Noble Dream: The "Objectivity Question" and the American Historical Profession", Paperback, Peter Novick

A richly textured account of what American historians have thought they were doing, or ought to be doing, when they wrote history

"Hollywood as Historian: American Film in a Cultural Context", Paperback, Peter C. Rollins

The various ways films have distorted history, revised history, provoked social change, and have been affected by the political and social climate in which they were produced.

"Rewriting History in Soviet Russia: The Politics of Revisionist Historiography, 1956-1974", Hardcover, Roger D. Markwick, Donald J. Raleigh

The vigorous rejuvenation of historiography undertaken by Soviet historians in the 1960s conceptually cleared the way for and fomented the dramatic upheaval in Soviet historical writing occasioned by the advent of "perestroika".

"Empire: The Rise and Demise of British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power", Hardcover, Niall Ferguson star

In 1900, London was the world financial center. The fall of the British Empire is relevant to Americans today. The information in this excellent history is useful for Capital Flow Analysis.

"The Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History", Hardcover, Joel Mokyr, Oxford University Press

More than 875 signed articles cover all aspects of economic history, including concepts and definitions, institutions, historical events, and people.

"Not So!: Popular Myths about America's Past from Columbus to Clinton", Paperback, Paul F. Boller

In each of 44 chapters, Boller considers a matter of common historical knowledge that is demonstrably or most probably untrue.

"False Dawn:The Delusions of Global Capitalism", Paperback, John Gray

"A worldwide free market," Gray warns, "is no more self-regulating than the national free markets of the past.. Unless it is reformed radically, the world economy risks falling apart in a replay, at once tragic and farcical, of the trade wars, competitive devaluations, economic collapses and political upheavals of the 1930s."

"American Heritage", Magazine subscription, 6 issues/ 12 months

This magazine uses a historical point of view to discuss politics, business, art, current and international affairs and changing lifestyles.

"A History of the Federal Reserve: 1913-1951", Paperback, Allan H. Meltzer, Alan Greenspan

The European origins of the model for the Fed and its transition from a passive to an active role in setting monetary policy.

"A History of the American People", Paperback, Paul M. Johnsonstar

This American History is required reading for Capital Flow Analysis.

"The Cash Nexus: Money and Power in the Modern World: 1700-2000", Paperback, Niall Ferguson

A radical new history of politics, with unsettling conclusions about the future of capitalism and democracy.

"The Politically Correct Guide to American History", Paperback, Edward P. Moser

Many of us learned our history from high school text books written in the post World War 50's. The class was taught by a teacher whose first name was "Coach". By "rewriting" that history according to today's "political correctness" the author gives a humorous glimpse of what history text books of the future may look like.

"Capital City: New York City and the Men Behind America's Rise to Economic Dominance, 1860-1900", Paperback, Thomas Kessner

"No succeeding generation enjoyed the economic power, the open political atmosphere, and the shaping influence available to this group of capitalists,"

Internet Resources in Capital Flow Analysis
The International Federation of Technical Analysts : IFTA home page. [Return]
The CFA Institute : A global membership organization that awards the CFA designation. [Return]
Center for the Study of Cultural Astronomy and Astrology : The Sophia Centre is an academic body within the School of Historical and Cultural Studies at Bath Spa University College. [Return]
American Academy of Financial Management : Financial Planner and Financial Analyst Certifications, Training Jobs, and Information. [Return]
Professional Risk Managers Association : Home page. Take a Tour. [Return]
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards : A professional regulatory organization based in the United States of America that fosters professional standards in personal financial planning. [Return]
Investment Professional Designations : About.com's guide to professional titles in the investment industry. [Return]
Behavioral Economics : Paper on Behavioral Economics by Sendhil Mullainathan (MIT) and Richard H. Thaler (University of Chicago). PDF[Return]
Daniel Kahneman : Autobiography. Nobel Prize.org. [Return]
Historical Data Section : Federal Reserve Board, Release Z.1. Flow of Funds Accounts. [Return]
Freelunch.com : Free economic statistics from Economy.com, a private corporation. Registration required to download. [Return]
Open Office : Free office suites software sponsored by Sun Microsystems. Includes word processor, spreadsheet, presentation tool, drawing program, and database access. Compatible with Microsoft Office. [Return]
Efficient Market Hypothesis : Description of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Random Walk Theory by "Investor Home". [Return]
Systemic Risk : "Capital Asset Pricing Model", explaining William Sharpe, specific risk, systematic risk. Risk Glossary.com [Return]













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