Minha terra tem palmeiras ..., Saudade, Goncalves Dias

Historical Notes (Continued)

Gonçalves Dias, saudade, Song of Exile

Song of Exile, Gonçalves Dias (translation):

Gonçalves Dias

"Minha terra tem palmeiras onde canta o sábia" is one of the most beloved Brazilian poems, heavy with patriotic sentimentality and nostalgia (saudade) for the homeland.

In my country there are palms where the sábia sings;

The song birds here, never sing like those at home.

Our skys have more stars,

Our fields have more flowers,

Our woodlands have more life,

Our lives have more love.

When musing at night alone,

I sense more happiness there,

In my country there are palms where the sábia sings.

In my country there are things that just can not be found here,

In my country there are palms where the sábia sings.

Oh God, don't let me die,

Before I get back home,

Before I can again find those things that are not here,

Before I again can see those palms where the sábia sings.

For a site heavy with nostalgia for Brazil in the 1960s, see: Escola Americana do Rio de Janeiro.

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Stock Exchange Modernization Study of 1965 :

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Case Study Brazil 1971

Conservative commentary on Politics and War

Author's Note

The brief six-month bubble in the Brazilian stock market in the first half of 1971 was the first time that I observed stock prices being driven by a well-defined set of capital flows that went unrecognized by many market players.

I was in a position to understand the Brazilian market at the time, as CEO of Brazil's largest broker-dealer and founder of the leading securities research firm.

In those early years, I knew many players and government officials who were involved in the Brazilian Economic Miracle.

Although I was able to use my insights to get out of the market before the crash, I was less successful in convincing others of the danger.

In March of 1971, I attended a gathering of brokers and bankers in Rio. The group included officials from the Central Bank and Stock Exchange.

I went around the room, explaining why I thought a market collapse was imminent.

Perhaps because my arguments were not yet fully formed, it was not easy to persuade anyone.

As in most bubbles, I found that market players wanted to believe that good times would continue.

Only decades later did I realize that lessons learned in the Brazilian market of 1971 were also applicable to U.S. flow of funds accounts when developing the methods for Capital Flow Analysis.

Although the forces that moved the Brazilian market in 1971 will never be repeated, the principles for interpreting capital flows remain valid.

The point of this case study is that although underlying capital flows always change and no two market cycles are the same, the principles of Capital Flow Analysis are constant.

— John Oswin Schroy

Index to this Case:

The Sociopolitical Environment

Capital Flow Analysis: The 1971 Bubble

Postscript

Applying Flow of Funds Analysis to Portfolio Management

External Links

Historical Notes

Goncalves Dias, saudade, 'Minha terra tem palmeiras ...'